NEXT PUBBLICATION: 18.05.2018
After a fairly volatile and difficult period for global stock markets led by an escalation of threats on customs duties between the United States and China, Chinese Premier Xi offered Trump, during an intervention at the Boao Economic Forum, a temporary truce .
The Chinese premier made significant promises to reduce trade imbalances with the US. Within a year, China will reduce tariffs on cars and other products, strengthen intellectual property protections, make it harder to copy foreign products, and open important sectors of its economy, such as asset management, to foreign capital. These are promises already made in the past, but never accompanied by a temporal implementation deadline.
The Chinese leader hopes to comply with the demands of the American president Trump, increasingly surrounded by judicial problems and eager to mark some political success to be presented to American voters. Those of Xi are just words, but they go in the right direction and in a short period of time certainly serve to ease the tension on the front of the commercial war.
For this reason, the markets have reversed the route in unison, starting from the Asian ones, and then seeing also the more cautious European ones, because of the macroeconomic data that signal the loss of momentum of the German economy and of the whole of the whole of Euroland.
For the reasons listed above, we remain cautiously optimistic over the medium term on the stock markets even if with a growth lower than that experienced in previous years. A particular attention to the growth of American and European reference rates, which could increase beyond forecasts if inflationary data would surprise on the upside.As for the currency market, we remain positive on the US dollar (both against CHF and against EUR) while we foresee a persistent weakness (on current basis) of the Swiss franc against EUR. Recently the Swiss National Bank reiterated that monetary policy will remain expansive for a fairly long period.