NEXT PUBBLICATION: 14.12.2017
The macroeconomic situation remains fairly stable with encouraging global economic growth, particularly in Europe. The evolution of inflation remains around expectations on both sides of the Atlantic even though there are many positive signals in America that lead to optimism. Political uncertainty remains high in the United States with President Trump who struggles in concretizing his political credo and, in particular, his electoral program.
All the spotlights are now on the corporate tax cut which is one of the milestones of the political program of president Trump; the success of this initiative is still quite uncertain. This uncertainty has recently depressed stock markets around the globe and has also halted the recent positive evolution of the US dollar in particular against EUR.
At the moment we do not see, at least in the medium term, a change in the evolution of the Swiss franc against the EUR that should remain weak, unless negative geopolitical events. We feel that these uncertainties may continue even during the next year and that is why we are cautious about the evolution of the stock markets that might well undergo a significant reversal during the first half of 2018.
Recent tensions in the Middle East as well as continuing geopolitical uncertainty in the Korean peninsula do not help to create a favorable climate for new investment initiatives. In the short term, we remain cautiously optimistic on the European equity market where we continue to favor blue chip stocks with good dividend so as US tech companies.
Prospects on the bond market are certainly not favorable given the certainty of rising US interest rates and the gradual return to normality in monetary policy in Europe, we therefor continue to keep a very opportunistic stance and systematically hedge the US exposures. Despite the slow rise in rates, we remain positive on the performance of yellow metal, particularly in the medium to long term.