NEXT PUBBLICATION: 05.10.2017
during the summer time the financial markets, in particular the equity and bond markets, remained at good levels without creating any particular surprises.Different story on the currency market, where the single European currency has recovered significantly and almost surprisingly value compared to all other currencies, particularly against USD and CHF.
Of course, this situation has caused some issues to the portfolios denominated in EUR and with an important currency diversification.We reiterate the concept of currency hedging that must be always active in order to avoid significant losses in particular during these periods of negative interest rates and with few interesting prospects also on the bond markets. We believe that this trend may continue for a few more months also because of the monetary policies implemented by the major central banks which for the moment do not foreseen any U turn.A destabilizing fact that could cause a radical change in the status quo is the complex geopolitical situation; We refer in particular to the possible political and military evolutions linked to North Korea, to the unpredictability and the impenetrability of US President Trump, who used to surprise us almost every day.
If the geopolitical situation continues to remain relaxed, we believe that the stock and bond markets may remain at current or slightly higher levels.On the other hand, the currency markets weigh heavily on central bank decisions, and in particular the possible loosening of the QE program in Europe and the normalization of rates in the US.We are of the opinion that the EUR USD parity may remain in the range of 1.17 to 1.20 and that the EUR CHF parity will remain in the range of 1.12 and 1.16. Given the complexity and uncertainty described above, we believe that gold could remain on interesting levels.