NEXT PUBBLICATION: 20.06.2018
The return of volatility on the equity markets was one of the characteristics that differentiated the first quarter of 2018 in respect of the recent past years.
There are several events that are affecting the financial markets and some of them could potentially be far-reaching.
There are several events that are happening The recent tensions between the NATO states and Russia and the United States with Iran have pushed the price of oil in the area 80 USD per barrel.
Historically, during oil price shocks, the stock market has almost always performed negatively, sometimes with important downturns.
We must not forget the possibility, even if for the moment quite remote, of a commercial war that would bring no benefit to anyone but possibly a sharp decline in global equity markets and in particular in the markets which are most exposed to commercial exchanges such as Europe and Japan.
The US macroeconomic data continue to be essentially positive and this could accelerate the normalization of US rates.
Also in this case, equity markets may suffer, however, with financial stocks that would benefit from a long-dormant source of income and thus supporting their share price.
The variables involved are really many and a minor event would be enough to trigger violent market reactions.
From a currency point of view, the US dollar is gaining ground and we believe it is possible that this trend may continue for a few weeks.
The rate differential, US economic growth and the momentary political uncertainty in Italy are helping the greenback to gain ground.